Macro Analysis for Funded Traders
Research context only: This is a public, simplified version of the SPX macro dashboard. It is not financial advice, not a trade signal, and not a buy/sell recommendation. The daily bias section has deliberately been removed. Use this for event-risk and market-context awareness, then verify official data and your prop firm rules.
Latest dataset refresh: 2026-05-25. Market: S&P 500 / ES. Data sources include FRED public data, CFTC COT, Finnhub calendar data where available, Yahoo Finance proxies, and Sierra Chart ES export statistics.
Macro data snapshot
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Trend | Latest date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI | 2.99 % YoY | 2.67 % YoY | rising | 2026-04-01 |
| Core PCE | 3.20 % YoY | 3 % YoY | rising | 2026-03-01 |
| NFP | 115 k MoM | 185 k MoM | cooling | 2026-04-01 |
| Unemployment | 4.30 % | 4.30 % | stable | 2026-04-01 |
| Jobless claims | 209 k | 212 k | falling | 2026-05-16 |
| Retail sales | 0.49 % MoM | 1.63 % MoM | falling | 2026-04-01 |
| 10Y yield | 4.57 % | 4.57 % | stable | 2026-05-21 |
| Yield curve | 0.43 % | 0.49 % | falling | 2026-05-22 |
| VIX | 16.76 index | 17.44 index | falling | 2026-05-21 |
| HY credit spread | 2.78 % | 2.80 % | falling | 2026-05-21 |
Upcoming event risk
These are upcoming high/medium-impact US macro events from the dashboard calendar. Times are shown as US Eastern plus approximate UK time. Always confirm final release times before trading.
| Date | Time | Impact | Event | Estimate / previous | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 28 May | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | high finnhub_api | PCE / Core PCE inflation Inflation | Est 0.3% Prev 0.3% | The Fed-preferred inflation gauge; soft prints can ease financial conditions. |
| Thu 28 May | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | medium finnhub_api | Initial jobless claims Labour | Est 211 Prev 209 | High-frequency signal for labour-market stress and recession risk. |
| Thu 28 May | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | medium finnhub_api | GDP estimate Growth | Est 2% Prev 0.5% | Growth backdrop check; downside surprises can shift the market toward recession pricing. |
| Mon 01 Jun | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | medium cadence_estimate | GDP estimate Growth | — | Growth backdrop check; downside surprises can shift the market toward recession pricing. |
| Mon 01 Jun | 10:00 ET 15:00 UK | medium finnhub_api | ISM manufacturing PMI Growth | Prev 52.7 | Cyclical activity and new-orders signal watched for growth inflection. |
| Wed 03 Jun | 10:00 ET 15:00 UK | medium finnhub_api | ISM services PMI Growth | Prev 53.6 | Services dominate US growth; weakness can hit earnings and risk appetite. |
| Thu 04 Jun | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | medium finnhub_api | Initial jobless claims Labour | — | High-frequency signal for labour-market stress and recession risk. |
| Fri 05 Jun | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | high finnhub_api | Nonfarm payrolls / unemployment Labour | Prev 115 | Labour strength affects both growth expectations and Fed reaction function. |
| Wed 10 Jun | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | high finnhub_api | CPI inflation Inflation | Prev 333.02 | Core inflation drives Fed-rate expectations and equity multiple pressure. |
| Thu 11 Jun | 08:30 ET 13:30 UK | medium finnhub_api | Initial jobless claims Labour | — | High-frequency signal for labour-market stress and recession risk. |
Market regime overlays
| Overlay | Read | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| volatility | Calm | 16.76 index | VIX is falling |
| rates | Stable yields | 4.57 % | 10Y yield is stable |
| credit | Credit improving | 2.78 % | HY spread is falling |
| breadth | Broadening rally | 1.615% | RSP minus SPY 5D return proxy |
Sector and breadth context
| Sector ETF | Name | 1D return | 5D return | Relative 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | Utilities | 0.78% | 3.37% | 2.50% |
| XLV | Healthcare | 1.17% | 3.30% | 2.43% |
| XLK | Technology | 1% | 2.34% | 1.47% |
| XLY | Consumer discretionary | 0.40% | 2.27% | 1.40% |
| XLF | Financials | 0.41% | 1.64% | 0.77% |
| XLI | Industrials | 0.73% | 0.22% | -0.66% |
| XLP | Consumer staples | 0.17% | 0.19% | -0.69% |
| XLE | Energy | 0.61% | 0.08% | -0.79% |
COT positioning snapshot
COT: ES asset managers net long 48.6% of OI; Nasdaq leveraged money percentile 35.9; USD positioning soft vs 3y range. COT is weekly positioning context only; it is not an intraday timing tool.
| Contract | Open interest | Asset manager net % OI | Leveraged money net % OI | Crowding / percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini S&P 500 | 2068443 | 48.61% | -19.41% | AM pctile 87.2 / Lev pctile 22.4 |
| Nasdaq mini | 293186 | 31.48% | -15.48% | AM pctile 80.8 / Lev pctile 35.9 |
Event backtest research
Backtest caveat: Event research is historical context only. It does not include slippage, spreads, prop-firm rule restrictions, transaction costs, or tick-level release behaviour. Some event dates are estimated where official historical calendars are not fully wired.
| Event | Samples | Same-day avg / hit rate | 5D avg / hit rate | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM services PMI | 23 | -0.41% / 52.2% | 0.21% / 56.5% | insufficient sample |
| Initial jobless claims | 98 | -0.14% / 46.9% | 0.15% / 58.2% | weak/noisy |
| Nonfarm payrolls / unemployment | 23 | -0.16% / 69.6% | 0.58% / 65.2% | insufficient sample |
| CPI inflation | 23 | 0.25% / 65.2% | 0.48% / 52.2% | insufficient sample |
| Retail sales | 22 | 0.08% / 59.1% | 0.52% / 63.6% | insufficient sample |
| PCE / Core PCE inflation | 22 | -0.03% / 59.1% | -0.69% / 50.0% | insufficient sample |
| FOMC rate decision | 15 | -0.06% / 33.3% | 0.24% / 46.7% | insufficient sample |
| ISM manufacturing PMI | 22 | -0.17% / 54.5% | -0.20% / 59.1% | insufficient sample |
Intraday ES event reaction research
Intraday research uses Yahoo ES=F 60-minute bars, not tick/release-second execution data. Treat it as broad reaction context only.
| Event | Samples | To event bar | +1h | +4h | +24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls / unemployment | 23 | 0.09% | -0.15% | -0.12% | -0.36% |
| CPI inflation | 23 | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.11% | 0.14% |
| PCE / Core PCE inflation | 22 | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.08% |
| FOMC rate decision | 15 | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.09% |
ES market structure stats
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Latest session | 2026-05-21 — large gap down filled | Gap -22.50 pts; filled: yes |
| All gap fill rate | 62.3% | 496 sessions; avg abs gap 25.97 pts |
| Large gap fill rate | 35.3% | 207 sessions >20 pts |
| Overnight high touch | 61.9% | Avg overnight range 53.66 pts |
| Overnight low touch | 51.4% | Both touched 21.4% |
| 15-min opening range | 64.5% continuation | Avg range 18.13 pts; sample 496 |
Data health and limitations
| Area | Status |
|---|---|
| Dashboard health | healthy |
| Data files OK | 10 / 10 |
| Calendar methodology | Uses official/manual override dates where available, Finnhub API dates where matched, and cadence estimates as fallback. Confirm exact official release dates before trading major events. |
| Market-regime caveat | Breadth and sector data use ETF proxies (SPY/RSP and sector SPDRs), not full index constituent breadth. Good enough for regime colour, not final signal validation. |
| Event research caveat | Research-only. FOMC uses explicit scheduled dates; most BLS/BEA/ISM releases still use cadence estimates until official calendars are wired. Pre-event bias is now taken from previous trading-day close to reduce lookahead risk. Same-day return is previous close to event-day close, not intraday release reaction. |
| Intraday caveat | Intraday v1 uses Yahoo 60-minute ES futures bars and currently analyses the recent high-impact event sample retained in the event report. It is directional research, not tick-accurate execution data. |
How funded traders should use this
- Use it to spot event risk before trading size.
- Check whether volatility, rates, credit, breadth or positioning could make conditions abnormal.
- Combine it with the economic calendar and your prop firm’s news-trading rules.
- Do not treat any table as a standalone trade signal.
- Re-check official calendars, firm rules and market conditions before entering trades.
Last reviewed: 25 May 2026. Reminder: prop firm rules, pricing, market calendars and payout terms can change. Always verify the current rulebook and fee schedule on the official provider website before buying or trading.